The Four-Horizon Problem

You can't plan 10 years ahead without knowing what you can deliver in 12 weeks

This week I’m reconciling multiple planning horizons, and it’s harder than most frameworks acknowledge.

You can’t just set a 10-year vision and work backward. You also can’t just execute 12-week cycles without checking if they’re pointing in the right direction. The layers have to reconcile, and most people never do the math.

Here’s how I think about it:

12-week cycles are tactical. What can I actually accomplish this quarter given time, energy, and competing priorities? This is where capacity matters most. You can’t fake throughput at this level.

Annual goals are strategic. How do four 12-week cycles compound? What position do I want to be in by year-end? This is where you check whether your quarterly execution is building something coherent or just keeping you busy.

3-5 year trajectory is directional. Where is this year’s work pointing? Am I building capabilities, relationships, and positioning that move me toward a specific future state? Or am I just repeating the same year four times?

10-year vision is aspirational but grounded. What position do I want to hold? What kind of work do I want to be doing? This isn’t fantasy. It’s a test for whether today’s decisions make sense.

The hard part is reconciling all four. Your 12-week capacity has to support your annual goals. Your annual goals have to build your 3-5 year trajectory. Your trajectory has to point toward your 10-year vision.

Most people skip this reconciliation. They either plan tactically without strategic direction, or they set long-term visions without grounding them in actual capacity.

This week I’m asking: Does my Q1 plan move me toward my 5-year position? If not, either the plan is wrong or the vision is.

Short-term capacity has to build long-term position. If it doesn’t, you’re not executing strategy. You’re just staying busy.

You can’t plan 10 years ahead without knowing what you can deliver in 12 weeks. Evidence first, then trajectory. That’s the sequence that holds.