Baseline, Stretch, Break
The difference between ambition and delusion
I’m working through my Q4 review this week, and one pattern keeps showing up: most people don’t know their baseline before they try to stretch beyond it.
The rationalization is predictable. This quarter will be different. More focused. Better systems. Stronger discipline. Surely that will unlock more output.
Sometimes. But not usually.
Stretch goals are supposed to create productive tension. Instead, they usually create delusion. Not because ambition is wrong, but because most people skip the step of establishing what they can reliably accomplish before deciding to do 50% more.
Here’s the framework I use now:
Baseline = what you’ve proven you can do repeatedly under normal conditions. Not once under ideal circumstances. Consistently, across multiple cycles. This is your capacity floor.
Stretch = 10-20% beyond your baseline. Ambitious but grounded. Push beyond your comfort zone without pretending you can triple your throughput because you’re motivated.
Break = anything more than 20% above baseline. This is where fantasy goals live. The distance between aspiration and capacity is too large to bridge through effort alone.
The tension between baseline and stretch is where actual growth happens. But it only works if both sides are real. Too little stretch and you stagnate. Too much and you collapse under commitments you can’t meet.
Most people skip the baseline calculation entirely. They set targets that sound impressive, miss them, then blame execution instead of planning. Then they repeat the pattern next quarter with the same result.
Better approach: Track your actual performance across multiple 12-week cycles. Average it. That’s your capacity floor. Not aspirational. Descriptive.
Then stretch from there. Add 10-20%. That creates enough tension to grow without enough distance to break.
Ambition matters. But it has to start from evidence, not inspiration.
This week I’m calculating my baseline for Q1. What have I proven I can do? Not what I want to do or what would be impressive. What does the data say I can reliably deliver?
Then I’ll decide where to push 10-20% beyond that, and what I need to subtract to make room.
Evidence first. Stretch second.